Riding profile

NJ-9

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-9, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

POU, NELIDA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pou, Nelida

  • Republican Challenger

    Burress, Tiffany

  • Republican Challenger

    Pino, Rosemary

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.6%
  • Republican 43.5%
  • Other 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-9 55.6%43.5%0.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +3.8 46.6% −3.2 5.4% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
4.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026