Riding profile

NJ-9

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.0%

    Nelida Pou incumbent

  • Republican 40.5%

    Rosie Pino

  • Other 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-9 58.0%40.5%1.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +3.7 44.9% −4.5 5.1% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-9, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

POU, NELIDA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

NELIDA POU 100.0%

27,790 votes

Republican primary

Winner

ROSIE PINO 51.3%

6,711 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pou, Nelida

  • Republican Open seat

    Rosie Pino

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
4.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026