Riding profile

NJ-5

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.5%

    Josh Gottheimer incumbent

  • Republican 38.0%

    Sean Joseph Kirrane

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-5 61.5%38.0%0.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +7.2 44.9% −6.9 5.1% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-5, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOTTHEIMER, JOSH

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

JOSH GOTTHEIMER 100.0%

38,077 votes

Republican primary

Winner

SEAN KIRRANE 100.0%

19,529 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Gottheimer, Josh

  • Republican Challenger

    Kirrane, Sean Joseph

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
11.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026