Riding profile

NJ-5

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-5, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOTTHEIMER, JOSH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Gottheimer, Josh

  • Republican Challenger

    Gajapathy, Chandiha

  • Republican Challenger

    Guinchard, Mary Jo-Ann

  • Republican Challenger

    Kirrane, Sean Joseph

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.0%
  • Republican 41.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-5 59.0%41.0%0.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.1 46.6% −5.7 5.4% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
11.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026