Winner
ADAM HAMAWY 28.6%
Riding profile
NJ-12
The question
NJ-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 35.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNJ-12 | 67.3% | 32.1% | 0.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +13.0 | 44.9% −12.9 | 5.1% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NJ-12, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
COLEMAN, BONNIE WATSON
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Hamawy, Adam
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026