Riding profile

NJ-12

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-12, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COLEMAN, BONNIE WATSON

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Adam Hamawy 19%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll May 7, 2026 · byworkbench_strategy

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Coleman, Bonnie Watson
Democrat Open seat

Adams, Matthew Mark
Democrat Open seat

Altman, Susan Copius
Democrat Open seat

Cohen, Brad
Democrat Open seat

Dixon, Elijah
Democrat Open seat

Hamawy, Adam
Democrat Open seat

Little, Kyle D
Democrat Open seat

Mapp, Adrian O Mr
Democrat Open seat

Morales, Richard
Democrat Open seat

Reynolds-Jackson, Verlina
Democrat Open seat

Robinson, Shanel Y
Democrat Open seat

Servance, Squire
Democrat Open seat

Singh, Sujit
Democrat Open seat

Vaingankar, Jay
Democrat Open seat

Wang, Samuel S.-H. Mr.
Republican Open seat

Mele, Gregg

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 29.7
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 64.8%
Republican 35.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HereNJ-12	64.8%	35.1%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	51.9% +12.9	46.6% −11.5	5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by

Democrat

Margin

24.8 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 15, 2026
Cycle: us_house_2026