New Jersey’s 3rd District
U.S. House · NJ-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 93% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-3 | 60.5% | 39.4% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.6 | 43.9%−4.4 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.0% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Herb Conaway · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Herb Conaway | 100.0% | 50,437 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Michael P. Mcguire | 57.9% | 14,810 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 8.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 21.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated