Riding profile

NJ-3

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-3, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CONAWAY, HERB MD

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Conaway, Herb Md

  • Republican Challenger

    Cullen, Jason

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcguire, Michael Patrick

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.7%
  • Republican 42.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-3 57.7%42.3%0.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.8 46.6% −4.3 5.4% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026