Riding profile

NJ-3

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.2%

    Herb Md Conaway incumbent

  • Republican 39.4%

    Michael Patrick McGuire

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-3 60.2%39.4%0.4%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +5.9 44.9% −5.6 5.1% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-3, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CONAWAY, HERB MD

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

HERB CONAWAY 100.0%

50,437 votes

Republican primary

Winner

MICHAEL P. MCGUIRE 57.9%

14,810 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Conaway, Herb Md

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcguire, Michael Patrick

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026