New Jersey’s 1st District
U.S. House · NJ-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-1 | 64.9% | 35.0% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+10.0 | 43.9%−8.9 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 11.5% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Donald Norcross · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Donald Norcross | 100.0% | 66,059 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Damon Galdo | 100.0% | 16,265 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 17.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 29.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated