Riding profile

NJ-1

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-1, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NORCROSS, DONALD W

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Norcross, Donald W

  • Republican Challenger

    Galdo, Damon

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.1%
  • Republican 37.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-1 62.1%37.9%0.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.2 46.6% −8.8 5.4% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026