Riding profile

NJ-1

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.6%

    Donald W Norcross incumbent

  • Republican 34.9%

    Damon Galdo

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-1 64.6%34.9%0.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +10.3 44.9% −10.0 5.1% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-1, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NORCROSS, DONALD W

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

DONALD NORCROSS 100.0%

66,059 votes

Republican primary

Winner

DAMON GALDO 100.0%

16,265 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Norcross, Donald W

  • Republican Challenger

    Galdo, Damon

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026