Riding profile

NJ-4

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.5%

    Christopher H Smith incumbent

  • Democrat 37.4%

    Rachel Peace

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNJ-4 62.5%37.4%0.0%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +17.6 54.3% −16.9 5.1% −5.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-4, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMITH, CHRISTOPHER H

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

RACHEL PEACE 72.8%

20,782 votes

Republican primary

Winner

CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH 100.0%

34,110 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Smith, Christopher H

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peace, Rachel

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026