Riding profile

NJ-4

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NJ-4, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMITH, CHRISTOPHER H

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Smith, Christopher H

  • Democrat Challenger

    Blake, John David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peace, Rachel

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.2%
  • Democrat 34.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNJ-4 65.2%34.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +18.5 51.9% −17.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026