New Jersey’s 4th District
U.S. House · NJ-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 96% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| NJ-4 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+18.5 | 54.9%−17.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 8.0% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Christopher H. Smith · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Rachel Peace | 72.8% | 20,782 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Christopher H. Smith | 100.0% | 34,110 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 35.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 24.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated