Riding profile

NJ-7

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-7: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

NJ-7, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

KEAN, THOMAS H. JR.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Rebecca Bennett 32%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 1, 2026 · bytavern_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kean, Thomas H. Jr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Adubato, Beth Ellen Ph.D.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bennett, Rebecca

  • Democrat Challenger

    O'Rourke, Megan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Roth, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Shah, Tina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sooy, Sara

  • Democrat Challenger

    Varela, Brian

  • Democrat Challenger

    Vartan, Gregory III

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
71%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.4%
  • Republican 49.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereNJ-7 50.4%49.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −1.5 46.6% +2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Z To A Research 314 Action 24–May 26 430 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Z To A Research 314 Action 24–May 26 430 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
5.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026