New Jersey’s 7th District

U.S. House · NJ-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.4%

Rebecca Bennett
Republican 47.6%

Thomas H. Kean Jr., incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 67% chance (75% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	75%
Orbit	Democrat	67%
50/50 blend	Democrat	71%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NJ-7	52.4%	47.6%	0.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−2.5	43.9%+3.7	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Stimsight Research InsiderNJ	8–Sep 12, 2026	498	likely voters	Rebecca Bennett (D) 47 Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) 42 Seamus O'Toole (StopIsrael'sGenocide) 1	See the poll
Z To A Research 314 Action Scenario 1	24–May 26, 2026	430	likely voters	Rebecca Bennett (D) 47 Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) 43	See the poll
Z To A Research 314 Action Scenario 2	24–May 26, 2026	430	likely voters	Tina Shah (D) 46 Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.4% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Thomas H. Kean Jr. · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Rebecca Bennett	45.3%	27,525 votes
Republican primary	Thomas H. Kean Jr.	100.0%	35,080 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Thomas H. Kean Jr.
source
Democrat Challenger

Rebecca Bennett
source
Other Challenger

Leguia, Lana

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Terry, Randall

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 5.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NJ-11 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-12 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-10 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-5 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-8 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-9 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026