Winner
REBECCA BENNETT 45.3%
Riding profile
NJ-7
The question
NJ-7: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 59%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNJ-7 | 52.3% | 47.6% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −2.0 | 44.9% +2.6 | 5.1% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stimsight Research InsiderNJ | 8–Sep 12 | 498 | LV | link | |
| Z To A Research 314 Action | 24–May 26 | 430 | LV | link | |
| Z To A Research 314 Action | 24–May 26 | 430 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NJ-7, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
KEAN, THOMAS H. JR.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
THOMAS H. KEAN JR. 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Kean, Thomas H. Jr.
- Democrat Challenger
Bennett, Rebecca
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026