Winner
ZACK MULLOCK 39.8%
Riding profile
NJ-2
The question
NJ-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 21%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNJ-2 | 53.3% | 46.7% | 0.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.4 | 54.3% −7.6 | 5.1% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling Voter Protection Project | 21–May 22 | 505 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NJ-2, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
VAN DREW, JEFF MR
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
JEFF VAN DREW 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Van Drew, Jeff Mr
-
Democrat Challenger Mullock, Zack
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026