New Jersey’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NJ-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.7%

Jeff Van Drew, incumbent
Democrat 46.3%

Zack Mullock

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 64% chance (86% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	86%
Orbit	Republican	64%
50/50 blend	Republican	75%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NJ-2	53.7%	46.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+9.9	54.9%−8.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Impact Research House Majority PAC	7–Oct 10, 2026	—	likely voters	Jeff Van Drew (R) 50 Zack Mullock (D) 40	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Voter Protection Project	21–May 22, 2025	505	registered voters	Jeff Van Drew (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 36	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	12.2% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Jeff Van Drew · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Zack Mullock	39.8%	17,698 votes
Republican primary	Jeff Van Drew	100.0%	35,602 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jeff Van Drew
source
Democrat Challenger

Zack Mullock
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 16.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.6 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NJ-1 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-3 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-4 Republican, safe seat
NJ-12 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-6 Democrat, safe seat
NJ-7 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026