Riding profile
NJ-2
The question
NJ-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
NJ-2, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
VAN DREW, JEFF MR
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Van Drew, Jeff Mr
-
Democrat Challenger Alexander, Timothy C
- Democrat Challenger
Mullock, Zack
- Democrat Challenger
Reese, Terri
- Democrat Challenger
Winder, Bayly Philip Christoper
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNJ-2 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +9.4 | 51.9% −7.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling Voter Protection Project | 21–May 22 | 505 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026