Riding profile

FL-4

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-4, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

BEAN, AARON P.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bean, Aaron P.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kirwan, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Knoles, Ricky Patric Mr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Robinson, Brittney

  • Other Challenger

    Sell, Mike

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.1
P(close race)
32%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.0%
  • Democrat 47.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-4 53.0%47.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.4 51.9% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
14.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026