Florida’s 4th District
U.S. House · FL-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 42%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 50% chance (69% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 69% |
| Orbit | Republican | 50% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 60% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-4 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+8.1 | 54.9%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.8% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Aaron Bean · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | LaShonda "L.J." Holloway | 57.3% | 29,739 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Aaron Bean | 0.0% |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 14.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated