Riding profile

FL-7

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-7: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

FL-7, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MILLS, CORY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mills, Cory

  • Democrat Challenger

    Adams, Jennifer

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dalton, Bale

  • Democrat Challenger

    Grayson, Alan Mark

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kinter, Marialana

  • Democrat Challenger

    Widmann, Noah

  • Republican Challenger

    Johnson, Michael

  • Republican Challenger

    Ulrich, Sarah

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
78%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.9%
  • Democrat 48.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-7 51.9%48.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.2 51.9% −3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling 20–May 21 570 RV
Democrat 41 Republican 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026