Florida’s 7th District

U.S. House · FL-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.6%

Ryan Elijah
Democrat 49.4%

Bale Dalton

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 52% chance (56% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	56%
Orbit	Republican	52%
50/50 blend	Republican	54%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
FL-7	50.6%	49.4%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.8	54.9%−5.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Dccc Targeting Team Scenario 1	17–Oct 19, 2026	414	likely voters	Ryan Elijah (R) 45 Bale Dalton (D) 45	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team Scenario 2	17–Oct 19, 2026	414	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	20–May 21, 2026	570	registered voters	Bale Dalton (D) 41 Cory Mills (R) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	19.4% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Cory Lee Mills · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Bale Dalton	45.5%	21,740 votes
Republican primary	Ryan Elijah	47.3%	31,532 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Bale Dalton
source
Other Challenger

Dennison, Christopher Allen

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Ryan Elijah
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 13.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-10 Democrat, safe seat
FL-6 Republican, safe seat
FL-8 Republican, competitive
FL-11 Republican, toss-up
FL-18 Republican, competitive
FL-5 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026