Winner
Bale Dalton 45.5%
Riding profile
FL-7
The question
FL-7: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 70%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-7 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.6 | 54.3% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 20–May 21 | 570 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-7, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
MILLS, CORY
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Ryan Elijah 47.3%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Dalton, Bale
- Other Challenger
Dennison, Christopher Allen
- Republican Challenger
Elijah, Ryan
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026