Florida’s 5th District
U.S. House · FL-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 76% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 97% |
| Orbit | Republican | 76% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 86% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-5 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.8 | 54.9%−12.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.1% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
John H. Rutherford · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Rachel Grage | 65.1% | 27,400 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | John H. Rutherford | 67.7% | 54,039 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 26.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated