Riding profile

FL-5

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.2%

    John Rutherford incumbent

  • Democrat 44.8%

    Rachel Grage

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-5 55.2%44.8%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.3 54.3% −9.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-5, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RUTHERFORD, JOHN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Rachel Grage 65.1%

27,400 votes

Republican primary

Winner

John H. Rutherford 67.7%

54,039 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rutherford, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Grage, Rachel

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026