Riding profile

FL-5

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-5, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RUTHERFORD, JOHN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rutherford, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Grage, Rachel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hazen, Alexander

  • Democrat Challenger

    Heggestad, Mark Peter

  • Republican Challenger

    Kaye, Mark

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.9%
  • Democrat 42.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-5 57.9%42.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.2 51.9% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026