Florida’s 11th District
U.S. House · FL-11
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 60% chance (67% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 67% |
| Orbit | Republican | 60% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 64% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-11 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+7.9 | 54.9%−6.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 16.2% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Royal Webster · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | James Pericola | 46.4% | 20,828 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Joe Strada | 33.5% | 27,381 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated