Winner
James Pericola 46.4%
Riding profile
FL-11
The question
FL-11: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.5
- P(close race)
- 82%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-11 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.8 | 54.3% −6.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mdw Communications | 28–Jul 30 | 1,044 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-11, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
WEBSTER, DANIEL
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Joe Strada 33.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Pericola, James
- Republican Open seat
Strada, Joe
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026