Riding profile

FL-11

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-11, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WEBSTER, DANIEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Webster, Daniel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pericola, James

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hall, Barbara Barbie Harden

  • Democrat Open seat

    Webster, Royal Mr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.7
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.9%
  • Democrat 45.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-11 54.9%45.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.2 51.9% −6.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026