Riding profile

FL-18

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-18: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-18, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FRANKLIN, SCOTT MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Franklin, Scott Mr.

  • Other Challenger

    Simmons, Deva

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.6%
  • Democrat 44.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-18 55.6%44.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.9 51.9% −7.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 18 (12018) 61%
  • Congressional District 11 (12011) 19%
  • Congressional District 9 (12009) 11%
  • Congressional District 15 (12015) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026