Riding profile

FL-18

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-18: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
35%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.9%
  • Democrat 47.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-18 52.9%47.1%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +8.0 54.3% −7.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-18, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

FRANKLIN, SCOTT MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Simmons, Deva

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 18 (12018) 61%
  • Congressional District 11 (12011) 19%
  • Congressional District 9 (12009) 11%
  • Congressional District 15 (12015) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026