Florida’s 18th District
U.S. House · FL-18
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 31%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 64% chance (83% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 83% |
| Orbit | Republican | 64% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 73% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-18 | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+9.9 | 54.9%−8.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Scott Franklin · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Curtis Gibson | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Scott Franklin | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 25.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.1 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 18 61%
- Former district 11 19%
- Former district 9 11%
- Former district 15 8%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated