Florida’s 16th District

U.S. House · FL-16

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 61% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.9 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.1%

Sydney Gruters
Democrat 48.9%

Kelly Kirschner

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 56% chance (61% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	61%
Orbit	Republican	56%
50/50 blend	Republican	59%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
FL-16	51.1%	48.9%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.2	54.9%−6.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Public Policy Polling American Democracy Project	1–Oct 2, 2026	530	registered voters	Sydney Gruters (R) 43 Kelly Kirschner (D) 39	See the poll
Sea Polling	25–Aug 29, 2026	400	likely voters	Kelly Kirschner (D) 40 Sydney Gruters (R) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Buchanan, Vernon · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Kelly Kirschner	43.0%	23,473 votes
Republican primary	Sydney Gruters	63.5%	48,531 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Kelly Kirschner
source
Other Open seat

Davis, Mark

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Sydney Gruters
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 24.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.9 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 18 50%
Former district 16 32%
Former district 17 10%
Former district 13 6%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-14 Democrat, competitive
FL-17 Republican, safe seat
FL-18 Republican, competitive
FL-12 Republican, competitive
FL-13 Republican, toss-up
FL-19 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026