Winner
Kelly Kirschner 43.0%
Riding profile
FL-16
The question
FL-16: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 78%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.6
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-16 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.7 | 54.3% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Polling | 25–Aug 29 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-16, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
BUCHANAN, VERNON
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Sydney Gruters 63.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Kirschner, Kelly
- Other Open seat
Davis, Mark
- Republican Open seat
Gruters, Sydney
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 18
(12018)50% - Congressional District 16
(12016)32% - Congressional District 17
(12017)10% - Congressional District 13
(12013)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026