Riding profile

FL-16

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-16: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-16, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

BUCHANAN, VERNON

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Buchanan, Vernon

  • Democrat Open seat

    Harris, Jonathan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lyles, Tamika

  • Democrat Open seat

    Pearson, Glenn Keith Mr

  • Democrat Open seat

    Schneider, Jan

  • Other Open seat

    Davis, Mark

  • Republican Open seat

    Pope, Edward Peter Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Speir, Jason Edward

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.4
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.7%
  • Democrat 46.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-16 53.7%46.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +7.1 51.9% −5.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
24.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 18 (12018) 50%
  • Congressional District 16 (12016) 32%
  • Congressional District 17 (12017) 10%
  • Congressional District 13 (12013) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026