Riding profile

FL-17

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-17: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.4%
  • Democrat 44.6%

    Matthew Montavon

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-17 55.4%44.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.4 54.3% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-17, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STEUBE, GREG

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Matthew Montavon 55.4%

27,610 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Montavon, Matthew

  • Other Challenger

    Quirk, Michael

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026