Riding profile

FL-17

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-17: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-17, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STEUBE, GREG

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Steube, Greg

  • Democrat Challenger

    Montavon, Matthew

  • Democrat Challenger

    Spence, Allen L Jr

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.0%
  • Democrat 42.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-17 58.0%42.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.4 51.9% −9.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026