Florida’s 17th District
U.S. House · FL-17
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 77% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 77% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 86% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-17 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.4 | 54.9%−12.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.3% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Greg Steube · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Matthew Montavon | 55.4% | 27,610 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Greg Steube | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 28.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 14.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated