Riding profile
FL-9
The question
FL-9: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?
Editorial read
FL-9, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SOTO, DARREN
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Soto, Darren
-
Republican Challenger Carter, Gregory Marcus Mr
- Republican Challenger
Chalifoux, Thomas E. Colonel Jr.
- Republican Challenger
Malavet, Jorge Antonio
- Republican Challenger
Rance, Howard Steven
- Republican Challenger
Story, Justin
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-9 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +9.4 | 51.9% −7.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 18
(12018)61% - Congressional District 9
(12009)28% - Congressional District 8
(12008)11%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026