Florida’s 9th District
U.S. House · FL-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Republican, with a 67% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Democrat (55%).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 55% |
| Orbit | Republican | 67% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 56% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-9 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%−4.5 | 43.9%+5.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Darren Soto · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Darren Soto | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Dan Green | 25.4% | 14,740 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 18 61%
- Former district 9 28%
- Former district 8 11%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated