Florida’s 21st District
U.S. House · FL-21
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 63% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 63% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 78% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-21 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+12.4 | 54.9%−11.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 14.0% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Brian Mast · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | James T. Martin | 50.4% | 24,045 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Brian Mast | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated