Winner
James T. Martin 50.4%
Riding profile
FL-21
The question
FL-21: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.2
- P(close race)
- 47%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-21 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.7 | 54.3% −6.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
FL-21, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
MAST, BRIAN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Martin, James
- Other Challenger
Cooke, Alexander R
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026