Riding profile

FL-21

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-21: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-21, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MAST, BRIAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mast, Brian

  • Democrat Challenger

    Martin, James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pandich, Elizabeth

  • Democrat Challenger

    Taylor, Bernard

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.3%
  • Democrat 44.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-21 55.3%44.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.6 51.9% −7.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
24.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026