Riding profile

FL-26

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-26: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-26, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 60-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DIAZ-BALART, MARIO

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Diaz-Balart, Mario

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gil, Yurina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Locklin, Nicole

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.0%
  • Democrat 44.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-26 56.0%44.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.3 51.9% −7.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
60.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-48.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 26 (12026) 54%
  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 37%
  • Congressional District 25 (12025) 9%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026