Riding profile
FL-26
The question
FL-26: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 21%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-26 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.4 | 54.3% −7.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
FL-26, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 60-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
DIAZ-BALART, MARIO
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Challenger
Meidinger Hosey, Deborah Ann
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 26
(12026)54% - Congressional District 20
(12020)37% - Congressional District 25
(12025)9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026