Florida’s 26th District
U.S. House · FL-26
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 67% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 67% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 80% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-26 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+12.6 | 54.9%−11.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Mario Diaz-Balart · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Nicole Locklin | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mario Diaz-Balart | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 60.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 26 54%
- Former district 20 37%
- Former district 25 9%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated