Florida’s 24th District
U.S. House · FL-24
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 49.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-24 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+19.9 | 43.9%−18.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Wilson, Frederica S. · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Oliver G. Gilbert III | 34.4% | 20,441 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mayonna Te Brown | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 31.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 49.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 24 72%
- Former district 25 20%
- Former district 26 8%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated