Riding profile

FL-24

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-24: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

FL-24, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WILSON, FREDERICA S.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Wilson, Frederica S.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Moise, Rudolph Dr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.0%
  • Republican 28.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-24 72.0%28.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +20.1 46.6% −18.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
31.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 24 (12024) 72%
  • Congressional District 25 (12025) 20%
  • Congressional District 26 (12026) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026