Winner
Oliver G. Gilbert III 34.4%
Riding profile
FL-24
The question
FL-24: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 49.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-24 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +20.5 | 44.9% −19.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
FL-24, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 25% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
WILSON, FREDERICA S.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Gilbert, Oliver G. III
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 24
(12024)72% - Congressional District 25
(12025)20% - Congressional District 26
(12026)8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026