Riding profile

FL-23

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-23: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.3%

    Lois J. Frankel incumbent

  • Republican 37.7%

    Deborah Adeimy

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-23 62.3%37.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +8.0 44.9% −7.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-23, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FRANKEL, LOIS J.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Lois Frankel 74.7%

42,945 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Deborah Adeimy 73.7%

20,630 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Frankel, Lois J.

  • Republican Challenger

    Adeimy, Deborah

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 22 (12022) 86%
  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 11%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026