Riding profile

FL-23

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-23: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

FL-23, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FRANKEL, LOIS J.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Jared Moskowitz 44%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Mar 5, 2026 · bycenter_for_strategic_politics

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Frankel, Lois J.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Doyle, Victoria Jane Boker

  • Republican Challenger

    Adeimy, Deborah

  • Republican Challenger

    Branda, Paola

  • Republican Challenger

    Cerezo Swaffar, Darlene

  • Republican Challenger

    Dorce, Sendra

  • Republican Challenger

    Gurfein, Jared

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.5%
  • Republican 40.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-23 59.5%40.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.7 46.6% −6.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 22 (12022) 86%
  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 11%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026