Florida’s 23rd District
U.S. House · FL-23
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-23 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+7.5 | 43.9%−6.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lois Frankel · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Lois Frankel | 74.7% | 42,945 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Deborah Adeimy | 73.7% | 20,630 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 20.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 24.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 22 86%
- Former district 20 11%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated