Riding profile

FL-20

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-20: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

FL-20, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 64-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 29% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ, DEBBIE

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Elijah Manley 63%

14 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 1, 2026 · bythe_political_matrix/the_listener_group

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Cherfilus-Mccormick, Sheila

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Wasserman Schultz, Debbie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Campbell, Luther Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Holness, Dale V.C. Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Manley, Elijah

  • Other Challenger

    Maxime, Kedner

  • Republican Challenger

    Joseph, Rodenay Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.7%
  • Republican 29.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-20 70.7%29.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.9 46.6% −17.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
63.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 62%
  • Congressional District 23 (12023) 37%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026