Riding profile

FL-20

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-20: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Primary desk · updated July 22

The Democratic battle reshaping FL‑20

A resignation, a new map and Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s entry turned a safe seat into a national primary story — without making a thin set of sponsored polls predictive.

Closed primaryAugust 18, 2026

This is the regular nomination for the next Congress.

Special electionDate TBD

It will separately fill the vacant remainder of the current term.

Published general-election model100% Dem. win

73.6% Dem. vote · 2026-09-16

What changed

A vacancy and a new political geography

Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick resigned on April 21. Her office remains open under the Clerk, but the district has no voting representation in the House. The Justice Department had charged her in a case alleging theft of FEMA funds tied to a COVID‑19 vaccination contract; the charges are allegations and she is presumed innocent.

The 2026 map enacted after the special session called by Ron DeSantis eliminated Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s former seat. Her decision to run in FL‑20, a historically Black district, prompted a debate over representation and local political power. Elijah Manley, Dale Holness and Luther Campbell are among her principal rivals.

Latest published full ballot

Wasserman Schultz leads a still-thinly-polled race

the political matrix/the listener group
2026-05-29–2026-06-01 · n=500 LV-D

Debbie Wasserman Schultz
39%
Elijah Manley
21%
Don't know
19%
Dale Holness
15%
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
3%
Luther Campbell
2%
Maisha Williams
1%

Vote‑Scope assessment: polling desk, not a primary forecast. One complete post-redistricting ballot and an EMC release commissioned by the Wasserman Schultz campaign (52%, other candidates’ detail unpublished) are not enough for a robust model.

Poll source →

Sources and method

Data current through July 22, 2026. The eleven questions in the file include scenarios and head-to-head matchups, so they are not averaged as eleven independent polls.

Download JSON data

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 73.6%

    Debbie Wasserman Schultz incumbent

  • Republican 26.4%

    Brent Andersen

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-20 73.6%26.4%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +19.3 44.9% −18.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-20, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 64-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 74% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wasserman Schultz, Debbie

  • Other Open seat

    Maxime, Kedner

  • Republican Open seat

    Andersen, Brent

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
63.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 62%
  • Congressional District 23 (12023) 37%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026