Winner
Eliott Rodriguez 53.5%
Riding profile
FL-27
The question
FL-27: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 95%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-27 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.3 | 54.3% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
7 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 25–Aug 30 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Blueprint Polling | 6–Mar 8 | 451 | RV | link | |
| Blueprint Polling | 6–Mar 8 | 451 | RV | link | |
| Kaplan Strategies | 25–Jul 27 | 804 | LV | link | |
| Kaplan Strategies | 25–Jul 27 | 804 | LV | link | |
| Kaplan Strategies | 25–Jul 27 | 804 | LV | link | |
| Kaplan Strategies | 25–Jul 27 | 804 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-27, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
SALAZAR, MARIA ELVIRA
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Maria Elvira Salazar 81.3%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Salazar, Maria Elvira
-
Democrat Challenger Rodriguez, Eliott
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026