Riding profile

FL-27

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-27: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-27, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SALAZAR, MARIA ELVIRA

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Eliott Rodriguez 54%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 18, 2026 · bybendixen_&_amandi_international

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Salazar, Maria Elvira

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davey, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Fornino, Alexander

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lamondin, Richard

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peguero, Robin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rodriguez, Eliott

  • Republican Challenger

    Arias, Vincent Michael

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.8%
  • Democrat 46.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-27 53.8%46.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +7.2 51.9% −5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Blueprint Polling 6–Mar 8 451 RV
Republican 47 Democrat 40
link
Blueprint Polling 6–Mar 8 451 RV
Republican 46 Democrat 43
link
Kaplan Strategies 25–Jul 27 804 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 34
link
Kaplan Strategies 25–Jul 27 804 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 35
link
Kaplan Strategies 25–Jul 27 804 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 38
link
Kaplan Strategies 25–Jul 27 804 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026