Florida’s 27th District

U.S. House · FL-27

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.7%

Maria Elvira Salazar, incumbent
Democrat 46.3%

Eliott Rodriguez

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 58% chance (83% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	83%
Orbit	Republican	58%
50/50 blend	Republican	70%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
FL-27	53.7%	46.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+9.8	54.9%−8.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 8 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC	8–Sep 13, 2026	600	likely voters	María Elvira Salazar (R) 47 Eliott Rodriguez (D) 46	See the poll
Bendixen & Amandi International	25–Aug 30, 2026	600	likely voters	Eliott Rodriguez (D) 45 María Elvira Salazar (R) 45	See the poll
Blueprint Polling Scenario 1	6–Mar 8, 2026	451	registered voters	Republican 47 Democrat 40	See the poll
Blueprint Polling Scenario 2	6–Mar 8, 2026	451	registered voters	Republican 46 Democrat 43	See the poll
Kaplan Strategies Scenario 1	25–Jul 27, 2025	804	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 34	See the poll
Kaplan Strategies Scenario 2	25–Jul 27, 2025	804	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 35	See the poll
Kaplan Strategies Scenario 3	25–Jul 27, 2025	804	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 38	See the poll
Kaplan Strategies Scenario 4	25–Jul 27, 2025	804	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	70.4% (± 1.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Maria Elvira Salazar · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Eliott Rodriguez	53.5%	17,324 votes
Republican primary	Maria Elvira Salazar	81.3%	29,225 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Maria Elvira Salazar
source
Democrat Challenger

Eliott Rodriguez
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 20.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-24 Democrat, safe seat
FL-26 Republican, safe seat
FL-25 Democrat, toss-up
FL-20 Democrat, safe seat
FL-28 Republican, safe seat
FL-22 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026