Florida’s 28th District

U.S. House · FL-28

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 59.1%

Carlos Giménez, incumbent
Democrat 40.9%

Phil Ehr

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 84% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	98%
Orbit	Republican	84%
50/50 blend	Republican	91%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
FL-28	59.1%	40.9%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+15.2	54.9%−14.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications Scenario 1	3–Mar 7, 2026	514	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 41	See the poll
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications Scenario 2	3–Mar 7, 2026	514	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	69.4% (± 1.0)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Carlos Giménez · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Phil Ehr	0.0%
Republican primary	Carlos Giménez	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Carlos Giménez
source
Democrat Challenger

Phil Ehr
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 29.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 18.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-27 Republican, competitive
FL-26 Republican, safe seat
FL-24 Democrat, safe seat
FL-25 Democrat, toss-up
FL-20 Democrat, safe seat
FL-22 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026