Riding profile

FL-28

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-28: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-28, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GIMENEZ, CARLOS

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Gimenez, Carlos

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ehr, Phil

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.1%
  • Democrat 42.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-28 57.1%42.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.5 51.9% −9.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications 3–Mar 7 514 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 41
link
Mdw Communications EDGE Communications 3–Mar 7 514 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
29.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026