Riding profile

FL-22

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-22: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
68%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.3%

    Pia Dandiya

  • Republican 49.7%

    Casey Askar

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  2. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-15Republican62 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-22 50.3%49.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −4.0 44.9% +4.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Impact Research House Majority PAC 24–Aug 31 — LV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
Impact Research House Majority PAC 24–Aug 31 — LV
Democrat 46 Republican 44
link
Tavern Research 10–Aug 12 551 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 50
link
Gqr 18–Jun 25 400 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 43
link
Gqr 18–Jun 25 400 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

FL-22, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Pia Dandiya 68.6%

26,053 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Casey Askar 30.9%

14,770 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dandiya, Pia

  • Other Challenger

    Parnas, Lev

  • Republican Challenger

    Askar, Casey

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
57.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-56.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 34%
  • Congressional District 26 (12026) 33%
  • Congressional District 18 (12018) 22%
  • Congressional District 19 (12019) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026