Riding profile

FL-22

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-22: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

FL-22, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dandiya, Pia

  • Other Challenger

    Parnas, Lev

  • Republican Challenger

    Burck, David

  • Republican Challenger

    Carbonara, Michael

  • Republican Challenger

    Franzese, Daniel John

  • Republican Challenger

    Medvedeva, Anna

  • Republican Challenger

    Wertheim, Herbert Dr. Od

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
54%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.4%
  • Democrat 47.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-22 52.4%47.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.7 51.9% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
57.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-52.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 20 (12020) 34%
  • Congressional District 26 (12026) 33%
  • Congressional District 18 (12018) 22%
  • Congressional District 19 (12019) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026