Riding profile

FL-25

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-25: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

FL-25, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MOSKOWITZ, JARED

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Jared Moskowitz 51.2%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 26, 2026 · bybeacon_insights

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Moskowitz, Jared

  • Democrat Challenger

    Larkin, Oliver Adams

  • Republican Challenger

    Franzese, Daniel John

  • Republican Challenger

    Harrison, Raven

  • Republican Challenger

    Kaufman, Joe

  • Republican Challenger

    Moraitis, George R

  • Republican Challenger

    Singer, Scott M.

  • Republican Challenger

    Villatoro, Claudia

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
91%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.6%
  • Republican 48.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-25 51.6%48.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −0.3 46.6% +1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Middle Seat 5–May 6 576 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 39
link
Middle Seat 5–May 6 576 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 34
link
Middle Seat 5–May 6 576 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 33
link
Beacon Insights 1–May 2 461 RV
Democrat 43 Republican 33
link
Beacon Insights 1–May 2 461 RV
Democrat 40 Republican 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 23 (12023) 46%
  • Congressional District 24 (12024) 28%
  • Congressional District 25 (12025) 18%
  • Congressional District 22 (12022) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026