Riding profile

FL-25

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-25: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
70%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.0%

    Jared Moskowitz incumbent

  • Republican 48.0%

    Scott M. Singer

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-25 52.0%48.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −2.3 44.9% +3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Middle Seat 5–May 6 576 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 39
link
Middle Seat 5–May 6 576 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 34
link
Middle Seat 5–May 6 576 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 33
link
Beacon Insights 1–May 2 461 RV
Democrat 43 Republican 33
link
Beacon Insights 1–May 2 461 RV
Democrat 40 Republican 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

FL-25, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MOSKOWITZ, JARED

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Jared Moskowitz 63.5%

28,294 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Scott Singer 31.4%

11,882 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Moskowitz, Jared

  • Other Challenger

    Jassenoff, Peter

  • Republican Challenger

    Singer, Scott M.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 23 (12023) 46%
  • Congressional District 24 (12024) 28%
  • Congressional District 25 (12025) 18%
  • Congressional District 22 (12022) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026