Florida’s 25th District

U.S. House · FL-25

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 65% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.5%

Jared Moskowitz, incumbent
Republican 48.5%

Scott Singer

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 60% chance (65% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	65%
Orbit	Democrat	60%
50/50 blend	Democrat	63%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
FL-25	51.5%	48.5%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−3.4	43.9%+4.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls, 8 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	26–Oct 27, 2026	523	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	592	likely voters	Jared Moskowitz (D) 47 Scott Singer (R) 42	See the poll
National Research NRCC	12–Oct 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Scott Singer (R) 49 Jared Moskowitz (D) 42	See the poll
Middle Seat Scenario 1	5–May 6, 2026	576	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 51 Generic Republican (R) 39	See the poll
Middle Seat Scenario 2	5–May 6, 2026	576	likely voters	Oliver Larkin (D) 43 George Moraitis (R) 34	See the poll
Middle Seat Scenario 3	5–May 6, 2026	576	likely voters	Oliver Larkin (D) 45 Scott Singer (R) 33	See the poll
Beacon Insights Scenario 1	1–May 2, 2026	461	registered voters	Democrat 43 Republican 33	See the poll
Beacon Insights Scenario 2	1–May 2, 2026	461	registered voters	Democrat 40 Republican 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jared Moskowitz · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jared Moskowitz	63.5%	28,294 votes
Republican primary	Scott Singer	31.4%	11,882 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Jared Moskowitz
source
Other Challenger

Jassenoff, Peter

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Scott Singer
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 14.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.0 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 23 46%
Former district 24 28%
Former district 25 18%
Former district 22 8%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-20 Democrat, safe seat
FL-24 Democrat, safe seat
FL-26 Republican, safe seat
FL-27 Republican, competitive
FL-23 Democrat, safe seat
FL-22 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026