Riding profile
FL-8
The question
FL-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.3
- P(close race)
- 23%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-8 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.2 | 54.3% −7.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 17–Jul 18 | 633 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-8, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
HARIDOPOLOS, MIKE
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Haridopolos, Mike
-
Democrat Challenger Jenkins, Jennifer
- Democrat Challenger
Shock, Colby
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 8
(12008)90% - Congressional District 10
(12010)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026