Riding profile

FL-8

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-8, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HARIDOPOLOS, MIKE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Haridopolos, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jenkins, Jennifer

  • Democrat Challenger

    Shock, Colby

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.3%
  • Democrat 44.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-8 55.3%44.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.6 51.9% −7.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
24.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 8 (12008) 90%
  • Congressional District 10 (12010) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026