Florida’s 8th District
U.S. House · FL-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 30%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 63% chance (84% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 84% |
| Orbit | Republican | 63% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 73% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-8 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.1 | 54.9%−8.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Mike Haridopolos · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jennifer Jenkins | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mike Haridopolos | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.5 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 8 90%
- Former district 10 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated