Winner
Mike Beltran 45.6%
Riding profile
FL-14
The question
FL-14: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 94%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 94%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-14 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −3.0 | 44.9% +3.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls Florida Politics | 14–Jul 15 | 469 | LV | link | |
| St. Pete Polls Florida Politics | 14–Jul 15 | 469 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
FL-14, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
CASTOR, KATHY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Challenger
Lambert, Brian Keith
-
Republican Challenger Beltran, Mike
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 16
(12016)51% - Congressional District 14
(12014)31% - Congressional District 15
(12015)18%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026