Riding profile

FL-14

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-14: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

FL-14, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CASTOR, KATHY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Castor, Kathy

  • Republican Challenger

    Rochford, Robert Anthony Rocky Capt

  • Republican Challenger

    Tek, Ergin Aka Batman

  • Republican Challenger

    Weldon, Daniel

  • Republican Challenger

    Wick, John Charles

  • Republican Challenger

    Williams, Shay

  • Republican Open seat

    Peters, John

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.3%
  • Democrat 47.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-14 52.3%47.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.7 51.9% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
16.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 16 (12016) 51%
  • Congressional District 14 (12014) 31%
  • Congressional District 15 (12015) 18%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026