Florida’s 14th District

U.S. House · FL-14

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.4%

Kathy Castor, incumbent
Republican 46.7%

Mike Beltran

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 54% chance (80% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	80%
Orbit	Democrat	54%
50/50 blend	Democrat	67%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
FL-14	53.4%	46.7%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.5	43.9%+2.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	315	likely voters	Kathy Castor (D) 48 Mike Beltran (R) 43	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics Scenario 1	14–Jul 15, 2026	469	likely voters	Kathy Castor (D) 46 Kevin Steele (R) 39	See the poll
St. Pete Polls Florida Politics Scenario 2	14–Jul 15, 2026	469	likely voters	Kathy Castor (D) 46 Mike Beltran (R) 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Kathy Castor · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Kathy Castor	0.0%
Republican primary	Mike Beltran	45.6%	25,850 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Kathy Castor
source
Other Challenger

Lambert, Brian Keith

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Mike Beltran
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 16.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.7 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 16 51%
Former district 14 31%
Former district 15 18%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-16 Republican, toss-up
FL-12 Republican, competitive
FL-13 Republican, toss-up
FL-18 Republican, competitive
FL-15 Republican, competitive
FL-11 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026