Riding profile

FL-19

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-19: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.0%

    Jim Schwartzel

  • Democrat 41.0%

    Victor M. Arias

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-19 59.0%41.0%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +14.1 54.3% −13.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-19, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DONALDS, BYRON

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Victor Arias 45.5%

15,406 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Jim Schwartzel 29.1%

26,140 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Arias, Victor M.

  • Other Open seat

    Haskin, Seth

  • Republican Open seat

    Schwartzel, Jim

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 19 (12019) 93%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026