Florida’s 19th District
U.S. House · FL-19
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 91% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 91% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 94% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-19 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.0 | 54.9%−13.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Donalds, Byron · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Victor Arias | 45.5% | 15,406 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jim Schwartzel | 29.1% | 26,140 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.9 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 19 93%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated