Riding profile

FL-19

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-19: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-19, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DONALDS, BYRON

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Jim Schwartzel 12.8%

7 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 21, 2026 · byvictory_insights

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Donalds, Byron

  • Democrat Challenger

    Neeld, Robert M. Jr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Arias, Victor M.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Sapp, Howard

  • Republican Open seat

    Cawthorn, Madison

  • Republican Open seat

    Collins, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    Hawatmeh, Ola Nesheswat

  • Republican Open seat

    Lauf, Catalina

  • Republican Open seat

    Oberweis, James Mr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Pedersen, Mike

  • Republican Open seat

    Sawyer, Linda J

  • Republican Open seat

    Schwartzel, Jim

  • Republican Open seat

    Strand, John

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.7%
  • Democrat 38.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-19 61.7%38.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.0 51.9% −13.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 19 (12019) 93%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026