Riding profile

MI-1

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MI-1, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BERGMAN, JOHN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bergman, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barr, Callie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Blomquist, Kyle

  • Democrat Challenger

    Stiles, Wayne

  • Republican Challenger

    Denotter, Matthew

  • Republican Challenger

    Michal, Justin

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.0%
  • Democrat 41.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-1 58.0%41.5%0.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.3 51.9% −10.3 5.4% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026