Michigan’s 1st District
U.S. House · MI-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 76% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 93% |
| Orbit | Republican | 76% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 84% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-1 | 55.1% | 44.4% | 0.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.2 | 54.9%−10.5 | 1.2%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.8% |
|---|
Current member
Bergman, Jack · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Barr, Callie | 58.4% | 61,999 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Bergman, Jack | 74.3% | 80,499 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 21.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated