Riding profile

MI-1

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.9%

    John Bergman incumbent

  • Democrat 44.0%

    Callie Barr

  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-1 54.9%44.0%1.1%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.0 54.3% −10.4 5.1% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-1, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BERGMAN, JOHN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Barr, Callie 58.4%

61,999 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Bergman, Jack 74.3%

80,499 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bergman, John

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barr, Callie

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026