Riding profile

SC-7

US House district — SC · Mixed · us sc

The question

SC-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

SC-7, a mixed riding in SC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FRY, RUSSELL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fry, Russell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Vincent, John Gregory

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.2%
  • Democrat 37.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereSC-7 62.2%37.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.6 51.9% −14.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
29.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026