Riding profile

SC-1

US House district — SC · Mixed · us sc

The question

SC-1: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
76%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.1%
  • Democrat 47.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereSC-1 52.1%47.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +7.1 54.3% −6.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling The Bench 9–Sep 10 536 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 42
link
Public Policy Polling The Bench 9–Sep 10 536 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 40
link
Gqr House Majority PAC 15–Jul 22 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 41
link
Gqr House Majority PAC 15–Jul 22 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 48
link
Public Policy Polling 5–Dec 6 645 LV
Republican 39 Democrat 36
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

SC-1, a mixed riding in SC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

MACE, NANCY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Open seat

    Reeside, William Oliver Jr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
16.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.5 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026