South Carolina’s 1st District

U.S. House · SC-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 49%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.3%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Democrat 48.6%

Nancy Lacore

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 63% chance (66% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	66%
Orbit	Republican	63%
50/50 blend	Republican	64%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
SC-1	51.3%	48.6%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.5	54.9%−6.3	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls, 8 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	770	likely voters	Nancy Lacore (D) 47 Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) 45	See the poll
Co/Efficient Scenario 1	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	837	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 53 Generic Democrat (D) 41 Generic Candidate (OTH) 1	See the poll
Co/Efficient Scenario 2	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	837	likely voters	Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) 46 Nancy Lacore (D) 40 Bill Reeside (Lib.) 4	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 1	9–Sep 10, 2026	536	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 2	9–Sep 10, 2026	536	registered voters	Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) 41 Nancy Lacore (D) 40	See the poll
Gqr House Majority PAC Scenario 1	15–Jul 22, 2026	—	likely voters	Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) 43 Nancy Lacore (D) 41 Bill Reeside (Lib.) 5 Margo Ellis (ALL) 2	See the poll
Gqr House Majority PAC Scenario 2	15–Jul 22, 2026	—	likely voters	Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) 50 Nancy Lacore (D) 48	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	5–Dec 6, 2025	645	likely voters	Mark Smith (R) 39 Mac Deford (D) 36	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Mace, Nancy · Republican

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Nancy Lacore	52.1%	12,825 votes
Republican primary	Jenny Costa Honeycutt	53.7%	24,035 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Nancy Lacore
source
Other Open seat

Reeside, William Oliver Jr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Jenny Costa Honeycutt
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 16.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.2 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

SC-6 Democrat, safe seat
SC-7 Republican, safe seat
SC-2 Republican, competitive
SC-5 Republican, competitive
SC-3 Republican, safe seat
SC-4 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026