Riding profile

SC-5

US House district — SC · Mixed · us sc

The question

SC-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.5%
  • Democrat 42.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereSC-5 57.5%42.5%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +12.5 54.3% −11.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

SC-5, a mixed riding in SC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NORMAN, RALPH W. JR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Norman, Ralph W. Jr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Clough, Andrew

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dittmer, Mallory

  • Democrat Open seat

    Harper, Alex

  • Republican Open seat

    Bledsoe, Bill

  • Republican Open seat

    Climer, Wes

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026