South Carolina’s 5th District
U.S. House · SC-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 86% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 86% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 90% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| SC-5 | 55.7% | 44.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.8 | 54.9%−10.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Norman, Ralph W. Jr. · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Mallory Dittmer | 55.8% | 25,428 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Wes Climer | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 27.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated