Riding profile

SC-4

US House district — SC · Mixed · us sc

The question

SC-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.5%
  • Democrat 43.3%
  • Other 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereSC-4 55.5%43.3%1.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.6 54.3% −11.1 5.1% −3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

SC-4, a mixed riding in SC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TIMMONS, WILLIAM R IV

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Timmons, William R Iv

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcclain, Courtney

  • Republican Challenger

    Atchley, David Michael

  • Republican Challenger

    Lee, Robert Eugene

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
22.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026