South Carolina’s 4th District

U.S. House · SC-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 55.7%

William Timmons, incumbent
Democrat 43.7%

Courtney McClain
Other 0.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 79% chance (95% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	95%
Orbit	Republican	79%
50/50 blend	Republican	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
SC-4	55.7%	43.7%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+11.8	54.9%−11.2	1.2%−0.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.2% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

William Timmons · Republican

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Courtney McClain	0.0%
Republican primary	William Timmons	65.8%	47,895 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

William Timmons
source
Democrat Challenger

Courtney McClain
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 22.5 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

SC-3 Republican, safe seat
SC-5 Republican, competitive
SC-2 Republican, competitive
SC-6 Democrat, safe seat
SC-7 Republican, safe seat
SC-1 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026