Riding profile

MO-4

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.4%
  • Democrat 32.9%
  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMO-4 66.4%32.9%0.8%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +21.4 54.3% −21.4 5.1% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MO-4, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ALFORD, MARK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Alford, Mark

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cass, Jeanette

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gray, Hartzell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Herrera, Jordan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Province, Danny Paul Mr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
44.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026