Riding profile

MO-4

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MO-4, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ALFORD, MARK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Alford, Mark

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cass, Jeanette

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gray, Hartzell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Herrera, Jordan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Province, Danny Paul Mr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.4%
  • Democrat 41.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMO-4 58.4%41.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.7 51.9% −10.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
44.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026