Missouri’s 4th District
U.S. House · MO-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-4 | 66.5% | 33.3% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+22.6 | 54.9%−21.6 | 1.2%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.9% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Alford, Mark · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Alford, Mark
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Cass, Jeanette
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Gray, Hartzell
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Herrera, Jordan
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Province, Danny Paul Mr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 44.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 33.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated