Riding profile

MO-5

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.7%
  • Republican 31.7%
  • Other 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMO-5 66.7%31.7%1.6%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +12.4 44.9% −13.2 5.1% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MO-5, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLEAVER II, EMANUEL

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Cleaver II, Emanuel

  • Republican Challenger

    Brattin, Richard

  • Republican Challenger

    Burks, Taylor

  • Republican Challenger

    Hueffmeier, Brett

  • Republican Challenger

    Patty, Bradley M

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, Sean

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
23.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026