Missouri’s 5th District
U.S. House · MO-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-5 | 67.1% | 31.9% | 1.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+12.2 | 43.9%−11.9 | 1.2%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Cleaver II, Emanuel · Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Cleaver II, Emanuel
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Republican Challenger Brattin, Richard
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Burks, Taylor
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Hueffmeier, Brett
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Patty, Bradley M
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Smith, Sean
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 23.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 35.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated