Riding profile

MO-5

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-5: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?

Editorial read

MO-5, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLEAVER II, EMANUEL

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Cleaver II, Emanuel

  • Republican Challenger

    Brattin, Richard

  • Republican Challenger

    Burks, Taylor

  • Republican Challenger

    Hueffmeier, Brett

  • Republican Challenger

    Patty, Bradley M

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, Sean

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.4%
  • Democrat 44.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMO-5 55.4%44.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.8 51.9% −7.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (29004) 53%
  • Congressional District 3 (29003) 38%
  • Congressional District 6 (29006) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026