Riding profile

MO-1

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
68.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 82.4%
  • Republican 13.7%
  • Other 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMO-1 82.4%13.7%3.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +28.1 44.9% −31.3 5.1% −1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MO-1, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 58-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 82% vote share, against 14% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BELL, WESLEY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bell, Wesley

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bush, Cori

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
57.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026