Riding profile

MO-1

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MO-1, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 55-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 82% vote share, against 18% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BELL, WESLEY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Wesley Bell 44%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 23, 2026 · byhit_strategies

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Bell, Wesley

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bush, Cori

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
63.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 81.6%
  • Republican 18.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMO-1 81.6%18.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +29.7 46.6% −28.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
55.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 1 (29001) 94%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026