Riding profile

MO-6

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MO-6, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GRAVES, SAMUEL B. JR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Graves, Samuel B. Jr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pondelick, Scot

  • Democrat Open seat

    Levine, Matthew

  • Democrat Open seat

    Smead, Josh

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.5%
  • Democrat 39.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMO-6 60.5%39.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +13.8 51.9% −12.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
43.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026