Missouri’s 6th District

U.S. House · MO-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 66.1%
Democrat 33.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	> 99%
50/50 blend	Republican	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
MO-6	66.1%	33.8%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+22.2	54.9%−21.1	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.2% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Graves, Samuel B. Jr. · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Graves, Samuel B. Jr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Schultz, Nathanael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Levine, Matthew

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Pondelick, Scot

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Smead, Josh

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Ingram, James Ronald

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Oshel, Cody

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Stigall, Chris

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Willett, Nathan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 43.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 32.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MO-5 Democrat, safe seat
MO-3 Republican, safe seat
MO-4 Republican, safe seat
MO-2 Democrat, toss-up
MO-1 Democrat, safe seat
MO-7 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026