Riding profile

MO-6

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.0%
  • Democrat 33.4%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMO-6 66.0%33.4%0.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +21.1 54.3% −20.9 5.1% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MO-6, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GRAVES, SAMUEL B. JR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Graves, Samuel B. Jr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Schultz, Nathanael

  • Democrat Open seat

    Levine, Matthew

  • Democrat Open seat

    Pondelick, Scot

  • Democrat Open seat

    Smead, Josh

  • Republican Open seat

    Ingram, James Ronald

  • Republican Open seat

    Oshel, Cody

  • Republican Open seat

    Stigall, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    Willett, Nathan

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
43.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026