Missouri’s 7th District
U.S. House · MO-7
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-7 | 66.9% | 33.1% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+23.0 | 54.9%−21.8 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.2% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Burlison, Eric · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Burlison, Eric
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Hesketh, Missi
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Hunt, Grayson
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 45.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 33.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated