Missouri’s 2nd District

U.S. House · MO-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.0%
Republican 49.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Republican, with a 51% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Democrat (52%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	52%
Orbit	Republican	51%
50/50 blend	Democrat	50%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MO-2	50.0%	49.6%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.9	43.9%+5.8	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 6 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	19–Oct 20, 2026	—	likely voters	Fred Wellman (D) 46 Ann Wagner (R) 45	See the poll
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	401	likely voters	Fred Wellman (D) 51 Ann Wagner (R) 46	See the poll
Remington Scenario 1	14–Sep 15, 2026	565	likely voters	Ann Wagner (R) 43 Fred Wellman (D) 42	See the poll
Remington Scenario 2	14–Sep 15, 2026	565	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 47 Generic Republican (R) 46	See the poll
Fm3 Research Scenario 1	26–May 31, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 44	See the poll
Fm3 Research Scenario 2	26–May 31, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.3% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Wagner, Ann L. · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Wagner, Ann L.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Bilash, Timothy D

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Summers, Charles David Mr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Vivio, Nicholas

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Vondras, Joan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Wellman, Frederick Paul

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Sheridan, Ryan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 12.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MO-1 Democrat, safe seat
MO-3 Republican, safe seat
MO-8 Republican, safe seat
MO-5 Democrat, safe seat
MO-4 Republican, safe seat
MO-6 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026