Riding profile
MO-2
The question
MO-2: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 75%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 98%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMO-2 | 50.1% | 48.9% | 1.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.1 | 54.3% −5.5 | 5.1% −4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fm3 Research | 26–May 31 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Fm3 Research | 26–May 31 | 600 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
MO-2, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
WAGNER, ANN L.
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Wagner, Ann L.
-
Democrat Challenger Bilash, Timothy D
- Democrat Challenger
Summers, Charles David Mr.
- Democrat Challenger
Vivio, Nicholas
- Democrat Challenger
Vondras, Joan
- Democrat Challenger
Wellman, Frederick Paul
- Republican Challenger
Sheridan, Ryan
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026