Riding profile
MO-2
The question
MO-2: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
MO-2, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
WAGNER, ANN L.
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Wagner, Ann L.
-
Democrat Challenger Summers, Charles David Mr.
- Democrat Challenger
Vivio, Nicholas
- Democrat Challenger
Vondras, Joan
- Democrat Challenger
Wellman, Frederick Paul
- Republican Challenger
Sheridan, Ryan
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.0
- P(close race)
- 50%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMO-2 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +5.8 | 51.9% −4.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fm3 Research | 26–May 31 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Fm3 Research | 26–May 31 | 600 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 3
(29003)65% - Congressional District 2
(29002)34%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026