Riding profile

MO-3

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MO-3, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mann, Bethany

  • Republican Challenger

    Onder Jr, Robert Frank

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.3%
  • Democrat 42.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMO-3 57.3%42.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.6 51.9% −9.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
34.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 6 (29006) 54%
  • Congressional District 3 (29003) 36%
  • Congressional District 2 (29002) 10%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026