Riding profile

MO-3

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.6%
  • Democrat 41.8%
  • Other 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMO-3 56.6%41.8%1.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +11.7 54.3% −12.6 5.1% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MO-3, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Holstein, Tommy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mann, Bethany

  • Republican Challenger

    Fraser, John G

  • Republican Challenger

    Onder Jr, Robert Frank

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026