Missouri’s 3rd District
U.S. House · MO-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 86% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 97% |
| Orbit | Republican | 86% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 91% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-3 | 56.8% | 42.2% | 1.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+12.9 | 54.9%−12.7 | 1.2%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.6% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Onder, Robert For Jr. · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Onder, Robert For Jr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Holstein, Tommy
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Mann, Bethany
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Fraser, John G
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Onder Jr, Robert Frank
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 26.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 14.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated