Riding profile

MO-8

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MO-8, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 54-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 74% vote share, against 26% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMITH, JASON T

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Smith, Jason T

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barnitz, Frank A

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reichard, Christopher

  • Republican Challenger

    Heslop, Gordon

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 73.8%
  • Democrat 26.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMO-8 73.8%26.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +27.2 51.9% −25.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
54.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026