Riding profile

MO-8

US House district — MO · Mixed · us mo

The question

MO-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 71.4%
  • Democrat 28.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMO-8 71.4%28.3%0.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +26.5 54.3% −26.1 5.1% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MO-8, a mixed riding in MO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 54-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 71% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMITH, JASON T

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Smith, Jason T

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barnitz, Frank A

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reichard, Christopher

  • Republican Challenger

    Heslop, Gordon

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
54.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026