Winner
Justin J. Pearson 65.7%
Riding profile
TN-9
The question
TN-9: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-9 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.4 | 54.3% −8.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates Tennessee Rise PAC | Three Star PAC | 1–Sep 3 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
TN-9, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
COHEN, STEVE I MR.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Brent Taylor 46.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Pearson, Justin J.
- Republican Challenger
Taylor, Brent
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 4
(47004)38% - Congressional District 8
(47008)36% - Congressional District 5
(47005)13% - Congressional District 7
(47007)12%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026