Riding profile

TN-9

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-9: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?

Editorial read

TN-9, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COHEN, STEVE I MR.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Steve Cohen 45%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 3, 2026 · bydata_for_progress

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Cohen, Steve I Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pearson, Justin J.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Torino, James Phd

  • Republican Challenger

    Bergmann, Charlotte

  • Republican Challenger

    Thompson, Jeremy

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.8%
  • Democrat 42.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-9 57.8%42.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.2 51.9% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (47004) 38%
  • Congressional District 8 (47008) 36%
  • Congressional District 5 (47005) 13%
  • Congressional District 7 (47007) 12%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026