Tennessee’s 9th District
U.S. House · TN-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 76% chance (87% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 87% |
| Orbit | Republican | 76% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 81% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TN-9 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.7 | 54.9%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Cohen, Steve I Mr. · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Justin J. Pearson | 65.7% | 32,097 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Brent Taylor | 46.0% | 31,057 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 38.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 38%
- Former district 8 36%
- Former district 5 13%
- Former district 7 12%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated