Tennessee’s 3rd District
U.S. House · TN-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 96% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TN-3 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.0%+18.4 | 54.7%−17.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Chuck Fleischmann · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Anna Golladay | 79.6% | 27,735 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Chuck Fleischmann | 100.0% | 76,463 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 38.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 24.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 3 85%
- Former district 4 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated