Winner
Anna Golladay 79.6%
Riding profile
TN-3
The question
TN-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-3 | 62.3% | 37.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +17.4 | 54.3% −16.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TN-3, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FLEISCHMANN, CHARLES J
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Chuck Fleischmann 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Fleischmann, Charles J
-
Democrat Challenger Golladay, Anna
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 3
(47003)85% - Congressional District 4
(47004)15%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026