Riding profile

TN-3

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-3, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FLEISCHMANN, CHARLES J

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fleischmann, Charles J

  • Democrat Challenger

    Golladay, Anna

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.0%
  • Democrat 35.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-3 65.0%35.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +18.3 51.9% −16.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (47003) 85%
  • Congressional District 4 (47004) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026