Riding profile

TN-1

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-1, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 59-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HARSHBARGER, DIANA

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Harshbarger, Diana

  • Democrat Challenger

    Burke, Kristi

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 75.8%
  • Democrat 24.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-1 75.8%24.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +29.1 51.9% −27.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
58.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026