Winner
Kristi Burke 76.6%
Riding profile
TN-1
The question
TN-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 46.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-1 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +28.3 | 54.3% −27.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TN-1, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 59-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HARSHBARGER, DIANA
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Diana Harshbarger 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Harshbarger, Diana
-
Democrat Challenger Burke, Kristi
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026