Riding profile

TN-2

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-2, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BURCHETT, TIM

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Burchett, Tim

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barnett, Michaela

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 64.0%
  • Democrat 36.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-2 64.0%36.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.3 51.9% −15.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026