Riding profile

TN-2

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.4%

    Tim Burchett incumbent

  • Democrat 38.6%

    Michaela Barnett

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-2 61.4%38.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +16.4 54.3% −15.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TN-2, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BURCHETT, TIM

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Michaela Barnett 100.0%

38,892 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Tim Burchett 100.0%

86,194 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Burchett, Tim

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barnett, Michaela

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026