Winner
Darden Copeland 39.8%
Riding profile
TN-7
The question
TN-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.8
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-7 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.0 | 54.3% −9.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TN-7, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
VAN EPPS, MATTHEW ROBERT
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Matt Van Epps 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Van Epps, Matthew Robert
-
Democrat Challenger Copeland, Darden Hunter
- Other Open seat
Koontz, Andrew
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 7
(47007)64% - Congressional District 6
(47006)33%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026