Riding profile

TN-7

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-7, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VAN EPPS, MATTHEW ROBERT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Green, Mark Dr.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Van Epps, Matthew Robert

  • Other Open seat

    Koontz, Andrew

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.6%
  • Democrat 42.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-7 57.6%42.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.9 51.9% −9.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 7 (47007) 64%
  • Congressional District 6 (47006) 33%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026