Tennessee’s 4th District
U.S. House · TN-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 81% chance (95% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 95% |
| Orbit | Republican | 81% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 88% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TN-4 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.1 | 54.9%−11.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Scott DesJarlais · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Victoria Broderick | 37.9% | 12,432 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Scott DesJarlais | 65.9% | 39,503 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 41.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 14.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 84%
- Former district 6 14%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated