Winner
Victoria Broderick 37.9%
Riding profile
TN-4
The question
TN-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-4 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +11.6 | 54.3% −10.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TN-4, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
DESJARLAIS, SCOTT HON.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Scott DesJarlais 65.9%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Desjarlais, Scott Hon.
-
Democrat Challenger Broderick, Victoria
- Other Challenger
Anders, Jacob Kristopher
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 4
(47004)84% - Congressional District 6
(47006)14%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026