Riding profile

TN-4

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-4, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DESJARLAIS, SCOTT HON.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Desjarlais, Scott Hon.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Broderick, Victoria

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cortese, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lanier, Timothy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Neal, Joyce Elaine Ed.D.

  • Republican Challenger

    Davis, Thomas Eugene

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.1%
  • Democrat 40.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-4 59.1%40.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +12.5 51.9% −11.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
41.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (47004) 84%
  • Congressional District 6 (47006) 14%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026