Tennessee’s 6th District
U.S. House · TN-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 87% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 87% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TN-6 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.7 | 54.9%−12.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Rose, John W. · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Mike Croley | 28.9% | 11,604 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Johnny Garrett | 43.6% | 37,388 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 35.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.5 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 6 78%
- Former district 3 16%
- Former district 5 5%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated