Riding profile

TN-6

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-6, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROSE, JOHN W.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rose, John W.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Ballin, Craig

  • Democrat Open seat

    Croley, Mike

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mosley, Chaney

  • Republican Open seat

    Garrett, Johnny

  • Republican Open seat

    Henry, Jon

  • Republican Open seat

    Hilleary, William V.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.4%
  • Democrat 39.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-6 60.4%39.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +13.8 51.9% −12.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
35.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 6 (47006) 78%
  • Congressional District 3 (47003) 16%
  • Congressional District 5 (47005) 5%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026