Winner
Mike Croley 28.9%
Riding profile
TN-6
The question
TN-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-6 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +12.8 | 54.3% −12.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TN-6, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
ROSE, JOHN W.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Johnny Garrett 43.6%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Croley, Mike
- Republican Open seat
Garrett, Johnny
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 6
(47006)78% - Congressional District 3
(47003)16% - Congressional District 5
(47005)5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026