Riding profile

TN-5

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.1%

    Charlie Hatcher

  • Democrat 44.6%

    Chaz Molder

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereTN-5 55.1%44.6%0.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.2 54.3% −9.7 5.1% −4.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Impact Research 19–Aug 24 500 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 40
link
Impact Research 11–May 13 558 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

TN-5, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

OGLES, ANDY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Chaz Molder 40.5%

17,730 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Charlie Hatcher 53.2%

36,546 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Molder, Chaz

  • Republican Challenger

    Hatcher, Charlie

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 8 (47008) 44%
  • Congressional District 7 (47007) 38%
  • Congressional District 5 (47005) 11%
  • Congressional District 9 (47009) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026