Tennessee’s 5th District

U.S. House · TN-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.7%

Charlie Hatcher
Democrat 45.2%

Chaz Molder

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 78% chance (88% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	88%
Orbit	Republican	78%
50/50 blend	Republican	83%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
TN-5	54.7%	45.2%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.8	54.9%−9.7	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Impact Research	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	552	likely voters	Charlie Hatcher (R) 46 Chaz Molder (D) 41	See the poll
Impact Research	19–Aug 24, 2026	500	likely voters	Charlie Hatcher (R) 48 Chaz Molder (D) 40 James Johnson (Ind.) 1	See the poll
Impact Research	11–May 13, 2026	558	likely voters	Andy Ogles (R) 47 Chaz Molder (D) 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Andy Ogles · Republican

Primary results

Held August 6, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Chaz Molder	40.5%	17,730 votes
Republican primary	Charlie Hatcher	53.2%	36,546 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Chaz Molder
source
Other Challenger

O'Leary, Micheal

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Charlie Hatcher
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 33.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 8 44%
Former district 7 38%
Former district 5 11%
Former district 9 7%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TN-7 Republican, competitive
TN-9 Republican, competitive
TN-8 Republican, safe seat
TN-4 Republican, safe seat
TN-6 Republican, safe seat
TN-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026