Riding profile
TN-5
The question
TN-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
TN-5, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
OGLES, ANDY
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Ogles, Andy
-
Democrat Challenger Hurley, Rachel
- Democrat Challenger
Molder, Chaz
- Republican Challenger
Hatcher, Charlie
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTN-5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +10.1 | 51.9% −8.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 11–May 13 | 558 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 8
(47008)44% - Congressional District 7
(47007)38% - Congressional District 5
(47005)11% - Congressional District 9
(47009)7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026