Riding profile

TN-8

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TN-8, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KUSTOFF, DAVID

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kustoff, David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bryan, Dewey Gordon

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.3%
  • Democrat 42.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-8 57.3%42.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.7 51.9% −9.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
42.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 8 (47008) 81%
  • Congressional District 7 (47007) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026