Riding profile

TN-8

US House district — TN · Mixed · us tn

The question

TN-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.7%

    David Kustoff incumbent

  • Democrat 45.3%

    Heidi Kuhn

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTN-8 54.7%45.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +9.7 54.3% −9.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TN-8, a mixed riding in TN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KUSTOFF, DAVID

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 6, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Heidi Kuhn 52.0%

23,787 votes

Republican primary

Winner

David Kustoff 100.0%

65,431 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kustoff, David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kuhn, Heidi

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
42.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 8 (47008) 81%
  • Congressional District 7 (47007) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026